BY ARYAN SHARMA, THIRD-YEAR STUDENT AT MAHARASHTRA NATIONAL LAW UNIVERSITY, MUMBAI
INTRODUCTION
Project financing serves as a cornerstone for infrastructure development, by facilitating the construction of essential assets such as roads, power plants, and urban facilities. In May 2024, the Reserve Bank of India released the draft ‘Prudential Framework for Income Recognition, Asset Classification, and Provisioning pertaining to Advances—Projects Under Implementation, Directions 2024’. The draft was aimed at strengthening the regulatory environment that governs project finance. This circular created quite a stir in the financial sector.
This article aims to examine the implications of these regulatory changes for lenders, borrowers, and the broader infrastructure sector. It explores whether the RBI’s cautious approach strikes the right balance between financial prudence and India’s ambitious infrastructure goals, and it analyzes potential market reactions and policy adjustments that may emerge in response to these new norms.
UNDERSTANDING PROJECT FINANCE
A discourse on the implications of the draft prudential norms requires an insight into project financing. Project finance refers to the method of financing infrastructure and other long-gestating capital-intensive projects like power plants, ports, and roads involving huge financial outlays. The typical project involves a high-risk profile, long gestation periods, and uncertain cash flows, all of which characterize the infrastructure sector.
Unlike a regular loan sanction, which would depend on the character, capital, and capacity of the borrower, the loan structure of project financing predominantly depends on the project’s cash flow for repayment. The project’s assets, rights, and interests form part of the collateral. Additionally, the lender assesses the project sponsors and their experience in handling and commissioning the project. Project funding could be through a consortium of several lending institutions or include loan syndication. It could have any sort of funding proposition. A project has three distinct phases: design, construction, and operation.
Banks and lending institutions primarily become involved during the construction and operational phases, where money is lent, and out standings appear in the books of accounts. After this, the extant prudential framework of income recognition, asset classification, and provisioning comes into effect.
The draft prudential framework recently released by the RBI pertains to loans and advances for projects. The regulator has proposed stricter regulations for project financing, which makes it more expensive for lenders to provide loans for infrastructure and industrial projects like roads, ports, and power. The main question is: what has changed and why?
WHY HAVE THESE CHANGES BEEN PROPOSED?
During the infrastructure lending boom of 2008 to 2015, banks whitewashed their books of bad loans and defaults, which forced RBI to launch an asset quality review. This led to the unearthing of thousands of crores of hidden bad loans, causing investors to lose money. NPAs in banks shot up to an all-time high of ₹6.11 lakh crores, and the government had to invest more than ₹3 lakh crores in capital to bring banks back into shape.
Furthermore, facts show that most project loans have been categorized as standard assets, even though there were some projects delayed beyond the planned schedule and were not yielding cash flows. This gave rise to the necessity for more stringent lending standards with extra provisions, which were directed towards avoidance of accounting shocks that might adversely affect the balance sheets of such entities. These actions are cautious from a risk management point of view, based on the regulator’s experience in the last credit cycle. Experience, after all, is a good teacher.
WHAT ARE THESE NEW REGULATIONS?
Under the new norms, there will be a broad provisioning of 5% of the funded outstanding on all existing and new exposures at a portfolio level. The new norms also demand a 1% provision even post-completion of the project, well over double the current requirement.
The central bank has created a provisioning timeline of: “2% by March 31, 2025 (spread over four quarters of 2024-25); 3.50% by March 31, 2026 (spread over four quarters of 2025-26); 5.00% by March 31, 2027 (spread over four quarters of 2026-27)”
Further, the allowable deferment periods for date of commencement of commercial operations (“DCCO”) are: “Up to 1 year for exogenous risks (including CRE projects); Up to 2 years for infrastructure projects with endogenous risks; Up to 1 year for non-infrastructure projects with endogenous risks; Up to 1 year for litigation cases”.
Perhaps the RBI’s proposal to impose a 5% provision requirement on project loans has been triggered by the Expected Credit Loss (“ECL”) norms, which require banks to make provisions based on past default experiences.
The ECL approach provides for the recognition of losses on loans as soon as they are anticipated, even if the borrower has not defaulted. These are prudential standards in accordance with international best practices. Every time the ECL norms are notified, banks will be required to reserve provisions for defaults accordingly.
HOW WILL THIS IMPACT LENDERS?
These new norms will significantly increase the provisioning requirements for banks and NBFCs, particularly those involved in large-scale infrastructure lending. Since the 5% provisioning mandate applies uniformly across all infrastructure projects, regardless of their inherent risk profiles, it may create a deterrent effect for lower-risk projects. Lenders could become more cautious in financing even relatively safer infrastructure ventures, as the increased provisioning costs may reduce the overall attractiveness of such exposures. This one-size-fits-all approach could inadvertently constrain credit flow to viable projects.
The higher provisioning during the construction phase will directly impact the profitability of lenders, as a substantial portion of their capital will be locked in provisions rather than being available for lending.
For lenders heavily engaged in project financing, such as PFC, REC, and IIFCL, this could mean a reduction in their lending appetite, thereby slowing down infrastructure development in the country.
IMPACT ON BORROWERS AND PROJECT DEVELOPERS
Project developers, especially in sectors like power, roads, ports, and renewable energy, will face tighter credit conditions. The cost of borrowing is likely to increase as banks and NBFCs factor in the higher provisioning costs into their lending rates. This could lead to:
- Higher interest rates on project loans
- More stringent lending criteria, making it harder for some projects to secure funding
- Potential project delays, as financing becomes more expensive and risk-averse
While these measures may enhance financial stability and prevent a repeat of the bad loan crisis of the past decade, they could also create bottlenecks in infrastructure development.
POSSIBLE MARKET REACTIONS AND POLICY ADJUSTMENTS
The sharp decline in banking and financial sector stocks following the release of this draft indicates that the market anticipates lower profitability and slower loan growth in the sector. Industry feedback is likely to request risk-weighted provisioning (lower rates for low-risk projects), extended implementation timelines, and carve-outs for strategic sectors like renewables. Developers may also seek clearer DCCO extension guidelines for projects delayed by regulatory hurdles.
Objections from banks, NBFCs, and infrastructure developers may include requests for tiered provisioning rates based on project risk (e.g., sectors with historically low defaults). There may also be appeals to adjust quarterly provisioning targets to ease short-term liquidity pressures. Additionally, there could be demands for exemptions in renewable energy or other priority sectors to align with national development goals.
However, the RBI may recalibrate its stance after engaging with industry stakeholders. Potential adjustments could include phased implementation of the 5% norm, reduced rates for priority infrastructure projects, or dynamic provisioning linked to project milestones. Maintaining financial stability remains paramount, but such refinements could ease credit flow to viable projects and mitigate short-term market shocks.
Given India’s ambitious infrastructure goals under initiatives like Gati Shakti and the National Infrastructure Pipeline, a balance must be struck between financial prudence and the need to maintain momentum in project execution.
CONCLUSION
The RBI’s draft prudential framework is definitely a step in the right direction to strengthen financial stability and prevent systemic risks in project financing. However, it also raises concerns about credit availability, borrowing costs, and infrastructure development. It is true that the primary focus remains on the increased provisioning requirements, but the norms also raise broader concerns about their potential impact on credit availability and infrastructure growth, which may have cascading effects. By necessitating higher capital buffers, the norms risk reducing credit availability and increasing borrowing costs, which are unintended consequences that could slow infrastructure development despite their prudential benefits. If implemented as proposed, these norms will fundamentally alter the project financing landscape, making lending more conservative and expensive.
Albeit the proposed norms will likely make lending more conservative and expensive, they also offer important benefits, such as improved risk management, better asset quality for lenders, and long-term sustainability of infrastructure financing. The framework could potentially reduce NPAs in the banking system.
Looking ahead, if implemented as proposed, we may see a short-term slowdown in infrastructure lending followed by more sustainable, risk-adjusted growth. A phased implementation approach could help mitigate transitional challenges, which would allow lenders and developers time to adapt. The framework could be complemented with sector-specific risk weights and credit enhancement mechanisms for priority infrastructure projects.
The final framework, once confirmed, will be crucial in determining the future trajectory of infrastructure lending in India. Whether the market’s initial reaction is justified or premature remains to be seen, but one thing is clear, i.e., the era of easy project finance is over, and a more cautious, risk-averse approach is here to stay.
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