From Hearsay to Hard Facts – SEBI’s Crackdown on Rumour Verification

BY RITUNJAY SINGH AND SEJAL SINGH, FIFTH-YEAR STUDENTS AT RMLNLU, LUCKNOW

Introduction

On May 17, 2024, the Securities Exchange Board of India (‘SEBI’) announced a pivotal change by notifying the SEBI (Listing Obligations and Disclosure Requirements) (Amendment) Regulations, 2024 (‘2024 Amendment’). The amendment brings notable updates to the SEBI (Listing Obligations and Disclosure Requirements) Regulations, 2015 (‘LODR Regulations’) by mandating Market Rumour Verification (‘MRV’) by listed companies, particularly those that lead to material price movement (‘MPM’).

Understanding the Regulation and its Evolution

The 2023 Amendment focused on triggering rumour verification upon a ‘material event’ occurrence but failed to define ‘material event’, leading to unclear compliance requirements. Consequently, SEBI proposed the formation of an Industry Standards Forum (‘ISF’) by industry associations in July 2023. By August 2023, the ISF, a collaboration between the Associated Chambers of Commerce, the Confederation of Indian Industry, and the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, was established to formulate standards for implementing specific circulars and regulations. This collaboration resulted in a Consultation Paper released in December 2023, which laid the groundwork for the 2024 Amendment.

The 2024 Amendment builds on this foundation, which initially mandated MRV but delayed its enforcement. The new regulations mandate rumour verification for the top 100 listed entities from June 1, 2024, and aim to extend it to the top 250 listed entities from December 1, 2024. The entity must verify specific market rumours reported in mainstream media that lead to MPM, usually within 24 hours from the trigger of MPM. General or vague rumours do not necessitate a response. It shall be specific to the industry consisting of unpublished information. 

Mainstream media includes Indian newspapers with substantial circulation and readership, their digital versions, designated online news sources, and select international newspapers and news channels. It excludes news sources behind paywalls, news aggregators, and social media platforms, except for verified accounts of recognised news sources. Such focused delineation may presumably provide entities with a manageable scope to monitor. However, excluding social media platforms may leave gaps in differentiating facts from fiction, as seen in the Sadhna Broadcast pump-and-dump controversy, where rumours on social media and YouTube videos artificially inflated stock prices, causing investors losses once the stock inevitably crashed. A similar scenario occurred in the infamous Reddit-fuelled GameStop frenzy, where a coordinated effort by retail investors caused an unexpected stock surge, defying traditional market expectations and forcing hedge funds into massive losses. Furthermore, SEBI’s recent efforts to caution the public against dealing with unregulated entities and clamping down on the association between regulated entities and ‘finfluencers’, SEBI acknowledges this pervasive influence. Excluding such platforms from rumour verification leaves a blind spot in the regulatory framework.

Having mentioned price volatility, it is crucial to understand MPM. The Bombay Stock Exchange (‘BSE’) and the National Stock Exchange (‘NSE’) introduced the MPM Framework to standardise its assessment, providing clear criteria for its calculation. It considers the cut-off percentage to price variation in share price between the closing price of the previous trading day and the next trading day’s opening price, excluding the benchmark index’s impact (e.g., NSE’s NIFTY 50 and BSE’s SENSEX). Additionally, intraday price movements are analysed, focusing on volatility throughout the trading day rather than just the opening versus closing prices. This responsibility of identifying the MPM rests with the listed entity, which may delegate this role to a designated officer. Owing to the constant fluctuation in stock prices, notifying the listed entity regarding the MPM necessitates a sophisticated technology-based solution. Going forward, service providers will likely offer these alert systems to companies. The lookback period i.e. the timeframe within which companies must retrospectively examine previous market rumours that might have induced an MPM is not specified, allowing companies to tailor their verification procedures flexibly to ensure a thorough and context-appropriate assessment.

On May 21 2024, SEBI released another circular regarding the “framework for considering the unaffected price for transactions upon confirmation of market rumour.” This framework calculates the unaffected price by excluding the effect of MPM and rumour confirmation on equity share prices. In mergers and acquisitions, if parties’ names are non-disclosable due to confidentiality, the unaffected price is valid for 180 days from rumour confirmation; if names are disclosable, it’s valid for 60 days post-confirmation (Paragraph 5.2.2). If the price variation due to rumour confirmation hits the price band on the next trading day, subsequent trading days’ price variation is included for adjustment until it no longer hits the price band. For example, if ‘A’ trades at Rs. 100 per share and a rumour about acquiring ‘B’ causes the stock price to rise to Rs. 400 per share, later proving untrue and falling to Rs. 50 per share, the rumour period causing the fluctuation is determined. The average stock price of ‘B’ prior to the rumour, over a fixed period (e.g., six months), is analysed. If this average is Rs. 100 per share and market trends align, the unaffected price is Rs. 100 per share. This benefit only applies if the rumour is confirmed within 24 hours of MPM.

Bridging the Gaps: A Vision for the Future

The 24-hour timeframe provided under Regulation 30(11) not only seems insufficient to locate the exact source of the rumour in order to effectively address it, given the vast trenches of media requiring navigation; but also, proves to be a very small window to provide the public with the necessary documents that support its confirmation or denial. Something similar took place in the short-selling saga of the Adani-Hindenburg case, wherein even after their quick response within 24 hours, Adani’s stocks continued to tread downwards. Moreover, such a stringent timeline could attract regulatory scrutiny under the PFUTP Regulations in the accidental case of a hasty and, incorrect disclosure. Conversely, the NYSE Manual allows the confirmation of a rumour without the ticking 24-hour time clock, alleviating any pressure and allowing the company to make an accurate statement that verifies the accuracy of a rumour without the risk of any regulatory repercussions for incorrect disclosures.

Furthermore, in the event of a merger and acquisition, a Non-Disclosure Agreement, which more often than not governs these negotiations, may act as a significant impediment to the Regulation, restricting the information that can be publicly shared. A premature confirmation or outright denial may attract a weaker negotiating position for the entity. While an argument can be made that a rumour may be surfacing owing to an already existing breach, that is not an argument strong enough for intentionally breaching confidentiality agreements. Henceforth, if a company were to deny a rumoured merger and later go through with it, investor trust could still very well be damaged. Some countries, like the United Kingdom (‘UK’), have a standstill period of 6 months under section 2(6) of the UK Takeover Code, in case a company does not verify a rumoured merger within 28 days. However, while this prioritises investor clarity and market stability, it is done at the expense of corporate flexibility and strategic planning. Companies might be forced into premature decisions that misalign with their timelines or negotiation strategies. A premature confirmation could also lead to a failed negotiation and wasted resources in case the deal does not go through.  Nevertheless, missing the 28-day verification window would result in being barred from making any such offers within the next six months, potentially missing out on opportunities.

A balance can be restored by allowing the company to delay disclosures if an immediate clarification poses potential harm. This postponement ensures that an entity can manage sensitive information without being forced into a premature disclosure that could disrupt ongoing negotiations. The same is ensured by Chapter 3 of the European Union Market Abuse Regulation. However, this ability to delay does not come without oversight. Entities choosing to delay shall have to provide regulators with an explanation for the same, demonstrating how exactly it aligns with their legitimate interests, thereby preventing the misuse of the provision for any unfair competitive advantage. Similarly, vis-a-vis leaving room for corporate flexibility, SEBI can also take note of Part III of Appendix 7A of the Corporate Disclosure Policy of Singapore that carves out exceptions to disclosure due to market rumours: (a) The information to be disclosed doesn’t breach any law (Rule 703(2)); (b) The issuer can temporarily refrain from publicly disclosing particular information if a reasonable person would not expect it to be disclosed, and the information is kept confidential (Rule 703(3)). This comes with the caveat of maintaining the strictest confidentiality to prevent leaks.

Conclusion

SEBI’s attempts to balance transparency and accountability are evident, even addressing possible concerns via its Guidance Note, including handling speculations regarding a Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer’s health. Yet, as noted earlier, the indeterminate lookback period tips the scales slightly against corporations. By adopting a more structured approach akin to international practices, Indian entities could be better equipped to safeguard their legitimate interests while maintaining investor confidence. Such regulatory evolution could demystify market speculations, enhance stability, and bring India’s disclosure standards into closer alignment with international standards, safeguarding the truth in trading.